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NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies announces that the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth

Second cabinet of Donald Trump — NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies announces that the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on 22 December 2032 has increased to 3.1% (1-in-32) following further ob

Published February 18, 2025· Updated October 28, 2026·1 min read

Context: Second cabinet of Donald Trump.

NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies announces that the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on 22 December 2032 has increased to 3.1% (1-in-32) following further observations of its orbital trajectory. It has now surpassed the threat of 99942 Apophis which once had a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth during 2004 before later being ruled out. [https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/chance-of-city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-smashing-into-earth-rises-yet-again-to-3-1-percent-nasa-reports (Live Science)] [https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/15/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-tracking/index.html (CNN)]

Event summary via Wikipedia Current Events (2025-02-18).